A bird in the hand…

By all accounts (there has been no formal announcement to this effect, but things seem to be carrying on as normal), Senegal have made their decision: Aliou Cisse will remain in charge of the Teranga Lions until 2025, taking in next year's Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in Morocco.

Not for the first time, Cisse's security in the role came under scrutiny following Senegal's campaign at AFCON 2023. The dissent, however, was louder than ever, understandably so on account of the erstwhile champions falling in the Round of 16 to the host nation. The fact that Cote d'Ivoire went on to win the tournament softened the blow somewhat, but the manner of the ouster was tough to both understand and swallow. 

The vein of the performance harked back to earlier in Cisse's reign, when his typically talented sides were undone by their inability to negotiate crunch ties on account of naivety. (2017 particularly sticks in the mind in this regard.) Two subsequent campaigns, as well as a solid turn at the World Cup in Qatar went some way toward convincing that lessons had been learnt, and so 2023, depending on how you look at it, could be viewed either as a blip or a reversion.

Either theory can be defended, but the benefit of great success is that it purchases for its purveyor benefit of the doubt. And so, it seems that, unless he had been minded to step away from the role – he was unwell for a period during the tournament, so that was not an unlikely eventuality – the position was Cisse’s to keep in the meantime. For Senegal FA boss Augustin Senghor, who stuck it out with the former Teranga Lions captain through a learning curve that seemed Sisyphean at times, cutting the cord now would have seemed reactionary.

And yet there is a danger there, even beyond an obvious concern over sunk cost fallacy driving the decision-making at the highest levels of the FSF. This extension takes the former Paris Saint-Germain midfielder into a tenth year at the helm. That is close to unprecedented for managers in the modern era, and for good reason: the threat of staleness due to ennui, though tempered by the halting nature of the international game, is no small matter, and is even harder to stave off when major accomplishment has been reached (e.g. winning the AFCON).

Unfortunately, there is no handy gauge by which it can be detected save for dips in performance on the pitch, and so it almost seems like, past a certain point, federations are condemned to reactivity, waiting for things to go completely off the rails before they can step in. This flies in the face of a core tenet of dynastic thinking, which is acting from a position of strength, rather than one of weakness. Waiting until failure has taken root risks poisoning the well, as happened with Algeria who, like Senegal are doing now, perceived a failed title defence in 2021 as a blip, only to suffer greater embarrassment a tournament on.

What then is the fair approach? Well, the truth is that there is no correct, one-size-fits-all answer. However, one surefire way to get it wrong would be to allow thinking to be guided by political, populist considerations. The consensus is seldom correct as the majority tends toward conservatism; by virtue of being administrators, a higher level of industry-specific knowledge and competence is expected from within federations. The layman, incapable of seeing beyond the obvious, may be satisfied with a bird in the hand, but it is only by seeing the forest for the trees that a double haul of fowl can be attained.

In order to break glass ceilings or make quantum leaps, speculation, though potentially unpopular, is often necessary. See, as an instance, Guinea-Bissau who, on Tuesday, announced that Fulham assistant manager Luis Boa Morte would take charge of the Djurtus from the end of the current Premier League season. 

On the face of it, it seems an unnecessary measure: Guinea-Bissau have only ever qualified for the AFCON four times, and all of those instances have come under the auspices of Baciro Cande. While they have yet to advance beyond the Group Stage in the competition proper, and indeed have yet to win a match, their modest standing in world football means it would be a stretch to brand their AFCON results a failure.

And yet, the FFGB have decided to risk certainty in pursuit of something greater. To be sure, it is an impolitic decision, the type of which many federations, concerned primarily with self-preservation, are loath to make. It could backfire: Boa Morte has built for himself a strong resume, but nothing is guaranteed in the best of circumstances, let alone in one involving a rookie manager making his bones in unfamiliar terrain. 

If it does blow up in everyone’s faces, there will be questions asked, a cautionary tale about knowing one’s place spun. However, if it does work out – and there is just as much reason to believe that it could – Manuel Nascimento Lopes will look very good indeed.

Such is the nature of leadership: with it comes an acceptance of responsibility, but also the burden of vision. There is wisdom in holding one’s counsel and waiting, but there is also cowardice in standing still.

Aliou Cisse was probably not the right man for the job when he was appointed in 2015. What he was, however, was the man who Senghor was determined could be the right man, and in whom the FSF invested a great deal of faith, holding steady until the picture shifted. Ten years in, he is once again probably not the right man (anymore); this time though, his incumbency has as much to do with belief as with a lack of imagination.