Finding Robin & WWSD
Parsing Nigeria's striker glut and some thoughts on weaponising a blockbuster front two
I know both how to be abased, and I know how to abound; everywhere and in all things I am instructed both to be full and to be hungry, both to abound and to suffer need
–Philippians 4:12 (The King James Bible)
It is a double-edged sword, abundance. To the prudent, it is a blessing; to the imprudent, a curse. And yet, in a bitter paradox, it is that latter class who most require it, for their aptitude for error necessitates greater margin. The prudent, able to account both for feast and famine, are content either way.
It is news to no one that Nigeria is swimming in strikers. In February, I wrote an article on this subject, and since then the pool has only gotten deeper. The intent of that piece was to, using historical precedent, show that the Super Eagles have tended to suffer on account of having too many options to choose from in the final third.
Despite that negative correlation, fatalism is not inevitable in the current circumstance. History is, after all, being written all the time, and while trend is useful for predictive purposes, it is not immutable prophecy. So, how best can Nigeria leverage this gaggle of attacking quality?
Well, if one is a subscriber to the idea that the simplest answer is the correct one, then the way to go is to play a system with two strikers upfront. Not only does the depth on offer proffer that solution, but a dearth of proper midfielders seems to demand it. Just as importantly, everything flows from that decision: not just what the precise composition of that forward pair should be, but how the rest of the side should be organised and constituted to both supply that front two and maintain balance in all phases.
It is worth noting, at this point, that Super Eagles coach Jose Peseiro has, for the majority of matches he has taken charge in, actually favoured a two-striker shape. The very first match of his tenure, a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Mexico, saw him deploy a 3-5-2, and in his most recent – the 3-2 victory over Mozambique, he lined the team up in a 4-4-2. There have been two exceptions to this scheme: in last November’s friendly defeat to Portugal on the eve of the World Cup and in June’s 3-2 victory over Sierra Leone, he opted for 4-3-3 and 4-4-1-1 shapes respectively.
However, while he is already on that page, there have been inefficiencies in execution that have been apparent even given the limited standing of the opponents faced. These have, invariably, stemmed from selection errors (mostly suboptimal profiling) that have hindered the team, particularly with respect to rest defence (how the team is structured to defend the turnover), and both coherence and spatial distribution in attack.
As such, the objective of this exploration is two-fold: first, to establish a complementary attack pairing and then, once that is understood, to set forth how the rest of the team should be composed to best leverage its attacking resources.
Around the turn of the century, two-striker systems, once the norm in much of the footballing world, ultimately bowed to the imperative of possession and numerical superiority in the middle of the pitch.
While the idea is enjoying something of a resurgence, in order for it to be workable, it needs to address that fundamental weakness in some form. This was true even before the proliferation of three-man midfields: for the final form of Nigeria’s famous 1994 Super Eagles vintage, for instance, the mitigation was in the use of Daniel Amokachi who was, in essence, that team’s no.10, playing off Rashidi Yekini.
Of his role, Amokachi said, “I always thrived for Nigeria in that position because it allowed me to see the game better, to roam about in front a bit, pick up loose balls and feed the main man up front.” In other words, dropping off the front and intuitively occupying spaces in the final third, either by becoming the spare man in midfield/between the lines, or by drifting wide to create overloads.
Amokachi was a striker in his own right, and scored his fair share, but by situationally playing deeper and/or wider, he not only provided a link between midfield and attack, he also (just as importantly) did not get in Yekini’s space.
This is important: a balanced strike partnership should not only necessarily boast as wide a range of qualities as possible within the framework of a centre-forwards skill set, it should also take on some of the duties of the traditional ‘no.10 role’ in order to mitigate the shortfall elsewhere.
Already, in modern football’s desire to commit more and more numbers to build-up and move construction, there has been – over the last 15 years – a greater demand for completeness in centre-forwards. No longer is it enough to ‘merely’ score goals; in fact, it now seems the hierarchical pyramid of centre-forward actions has flipped on its head, with sticking the ball in the back of the net – that most specialised of actions – shunted to the bottom in favour of generalisation. (Interestingly, the rise of Erling Haaland seems to herald a return to the old ways, and in order to properly accommodate that limited profile, what is Pep Guardiola doing? Playing, essentially, a front two.)
So, the key to fielding a balanced, complementary front two is first to (try to) answer the question: from a process standpoint, what are the functions of a striker?
My attempt at an answer came up with eight items. N.B.: It does not claim to be exhaustive, by any means.
Link-up
Hold-up/retention
Aerial control
Running channels and depth
Ball carrying
Space creation (for others)
Off-ball rigour
Shot generation
It stands to reason, then, that the most coherent front two selectable is one that provides the largest spread in terms of covering all of these eight functions to a high level. With that in mind, an appraisal of the available options (limited, to prevent unwieldiness, to forwards who have been called up at some point under Jose Peseiro and who are in good nick at the moment) should resolve things very quickly.
While certain stylistic peculiarities are easy enough to appreciate (no one needs statistics to tell, for instance, that Victor Osimhen is great at channel/depth runs), for the sake of objectivity, I will be using certain statistical resources to categorise the strikers under consideration. Smarterscout, FBref and Understat, to be exact, as these do good jobs of encapsulating a player’s style using their statistical output.
In this table, ‘o’ represents proficiency in a specific aspect of centre-forward play, while ‘x’ denotes a lack thereof. Naturally, there are degrees of mastery that transcend the binary (it is safe to say, for example, that while both Victor Osimhen and Cyriel Dessers are good at generating and taking shots, the former does it to a greater degree) but, for the purpose of simplicity, suffice it to be so.
Since the idea is to mine both for compatibility and as comprehensive a spread as possible, anything other than an ‘xx’ configuration in any category is acceptable for the purpose. It is permissible to reproduce strength in most cases, but not weakness. It is worth noting, however, that when it comes to a partnership, some attributes work best in contrast with others. For instance, having two strikers who both favour coming short would leave a team without box threat; if both favour depth runs at all times, it would break the connection between midfield and attack.
One final note: of the eight functions, the hardest to quantify/measure statistically is space creation (for others, through movement). I considered taking it out altogether, not just for that reason but because its meaning can be a little abstruse. However, considering that, in any strike partnership, it is important for the strikers to not only facilitate their own opportunities, but to move in such a way as to open up avenues for their partners, I decided, at the last minute, to leave it in. You will simply have to take my word (and eye) for it when it comes to evaluating that.
On the basis of the above, the five best strike partnerships Nigeria can parade, in order, are
Osimhen-Boniface
Osimhen-Iheanacho
Osimhen-Lookman
Boniface-Lookman
Awoniyi-Boniface
Osimhen-Iheanacho is, of course, nothing new. However, it is arguable that, bar the first half of the defeat to Guinea Bissau in Abuja, they have never functioned as a proper front two in practice. Kelechi Iheanacho has often been asked to play as an out-and-out attacking midfielder despite being far better at dropping/drifting into space between the lines than starting there. It is a subtle variation, but almost entirely accounts for the sense that the partnership has been underwhelming, as Iheanacho’s deeper positioning has frequently left Victor Osimhen isolated. That negates the entire point of playing a front two.
However, Osimhen-Boniface offers a wider range of possibilities and, most importantly, no areas of weakness. There is a smooth balance between complementing one another and working in tandem: where Osimhen goes into depth, Boniface is adept at dropping off the front line into pockets of space; where one pulls wide, the other is capable of maintaining threat and shot volume inside the box.
Even their favoured shooting zones are nicely symmetric: Osimhen’s bias is toward right-of-centre, while Boniface favours the left. (Iheanacho, by contrast, almost always cuts in from the right to shoot goalward.)
Now to the knottier matter of how the team should be selected to facilitate a front two. For this, I will use, as a reference, the Super Eagles’ shape in their last competitive fixture: the 6-0 win over Sao Tome in Uyo.
In that match, Peseiro selected what can best be termed a 4-4-2/4-2-4 out of possession, but in possession the structure was quite a bit different. Wilfred Ndidi, the deeper of the two central midfielders, often dropped between the centre-backs for the purpose of bringing the ball out, with the full-backs advancing. This left the middle of the pitch relatively bare, but no mind: the team mostly progressed through the wide areas, especially on the right where Iheanacho’s positioning in the half-space, combined with Frank Onyeka’s drifts into that zone and the overlaps by Ola Aina, created an overload naturally.
Now, the level of Sao Tome is hardly worth shouting about. This is important to note so as not to lose sight of the reality: stringing four out-and-out forwards across the front line is unlikely to prosper against better opposition, especially if you also want Aina and Bruno Onyemaechi – who appears to have sewn up the left-back spot already – to go forward and attack as well. Let us hit on something more practical.
Now, football is more collectivist than ever in its tactical outlook. However, at its core, every tactical system, however democratic, still prioritises the excellence of its best (or, at least, most effective) player(s). For the Super Eagles as currently composed, that cadre comprises Osimhen, Boniface, Iheanacho, Onyemaechi and Ndidi. If it is to function to its fullest potential, the team has to be structured in such a way as to get all of these individuals in their optimal zones.
Here is how I would play it. Note: this is entirely what I think would work best, rather than what I expect to, or even think will, happen.
A couple of explanations. First, is that a 4-4-2, a 4-2-2-2, a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-2-1? The answer is: yes. It is any and all of those things situationally, although out of possession it will shape up as a 4-4-2.
Alex Iwobi’s role is crucial here. Peseiro selected Ademola Lookman for the matches against Sao Tome and Saudi Arabia, and while the Atalanta man posted good performances, against the better sides, it is imperative to have another midfielder in the mix. Besides, in Osimhen and Boniface, the Super Eagles already boast two of the most prolific shooters in football at the moment. What they need is for the ball to arrive into the final third with regularity, and that is what Iwobi excels at. The Fulham man, in tandem with Iheanacho on the opposite flank, will deliver the ball into the front men, with the added bonus of Iwobi being a great ball carrier.
The midfield pairing is with an eye to security in and out of possession. Raphael Onyedika is a profile the national team has been lacking for a while: a solid tempo-setter who retains possession and passes reliably at a high volume. He shone against Mozambique and will hold his position, which is crucial in allowing Ndidi a bit more licence to step to the man in possession when required.
Having the Leicester City man as the deepest midfielder has always seemed a bit of a waste, and even though he adapted to the holding role with time, he is relishing a return to a more vertical role this term at club level. Having a more positionally disciplined player behind him (a la Harry Winks) frees him up to put out fires wherever they arise, albeit without needing to overly figure in the final third in this case.
Aside from using Iwobi instead of Lookman on the left, there is another concession to practicality in the roles of the full-backs. Simply put, it would be suicidal for both Onyemaechi and Bright Osayi-Samuel to be given attacking licence. Instead, this conception has the latter going forward to provide the width on the right flank, and the former in a more withdrawn ‘support’ – to borrow a Football Manager term – role. (Being able to play as a centre-back as well, Onyemaechi would have few problems carrying out this brief.)
Between Onyemaechi’s deep positioning, Iwobi and Boniface pulling out to the left – which he is wont to do – width on the left hand side is taken care of.
To the defensive sector, where there are question marks over two positions: goalkeeper and right-sided centre-back. More on the latter in a minute; why have I selected Jordan Torunarigha?
I came away from his debut against Mozambique quite impressed by his level, and believe he is the most talented ball-playing defender available to Peseiro. Not only is he a strong passer and carrier of the ball, but he possesses a great deal of pace as well. This makes him the perfect fit for the ‘sweeper’ role in the defensive pairing. Is it too soon? Probably, but there are two World Cup qualifiers, as well as friendlies before the commencement of AFCON to bed him in. He is a much better fit than Calvin Bassey who, interestingly enough, would be a really strong deputy/alternative for Onyemaechi in this set-up.
The identity of his centre-back partner is a source of consternation, however. The profile is clear enough to me: a physical, active, front-foot defender who is comfortable in one-on-one situations, especially by the right touchline. Does that description remind you of someone…?
Purely from a profile perspective, Awaziem meets the criteria about as well as anyone possibly could. He does have an unfortunate habit of losing runners when they enter his blindside, however, and that is the reason I am reluctant to fully commit. In fact, considering that Peseiro has largely given him short shrift, were the other options even vaguely suitable, I would have shut Awaziem out completely on that account.
Semi Ajayi has underwhelmed as the more experienced partner to Bassey in recent matches, and is not much of a marker. William Troost-Ekong has lost his place not only in the starting line-up – in the classic Nigerian tradition of the non-playing captain – but in the squad as well, and was never rapid. Kenneth Omeruo, sterling servant that he has been for the Super Eagles especially in tournaments, could perhaps have fulfilled this brief half a decade ago, but is getting on a little bit these days.
The pickings are slim, but there is a left-field option, one who has been called up recently before being ruled out by injury, and has yet to make his debut to this point. One who actually fits the profile, and who is playing in European competition this season. Igoh Ogbu. Keep an eye out for him.
As for goalkeeper, it’s simple. I have gone with Adebayo Adeleye because, of the pool of goalkeepers involved with the national team at the moment, he is the best one. I entertain no illusions of a knight in shining armour riding to our rescue in the immediate short-term. At some point, a choice needs to be made; a pairing of Torunarigha and (Ogbu/Awaziem/Ajayi) is good enough in the air and quick enough that Adeleye does not need to face a barrage of crosses if the team is properly structured.
If, as is heavily rumoured, Chippa United’s Stanley Nwabali is considered for the role and impresses if handed a chance, I will be only too happy to revise my position.
The aim of this exercise was not to state/claim that this is the only way to set the Super Eagles up in order to achieve success.
This is an important clarification: too often, when undertakings like these are committed to the page and released into the wild, they can be considered a bit presumptuous. Jose Peseiro most assuredly knows vastly more about tactics than I do or ever will, and so I do not deign to advise him—even if I wanted to, he most certainly is not reading my newsletter.
I do, however, know a little bit. So think of this as a thought experiment, as well as a preemptive reply to those – and they are not few – who are curious about what I would do instead whenever I pronounce a selection as lacking balance or coherence. Whether that curiosity is in good faith or bad, I have answered it anyway, and if you are here, I will safely assume you came in search of my honest, informed opinion.
This is it.